Radar Signals

While preparing the first :Policy Briefings” for Marshall on Policy, I found myself stopped by “the circular economy”. Not because it is the loudest issue in Irish politics. It is not. Not because I had set out to make it the centre of anything. I had not.

But because, once I began reading around it, it started to look less like a technical environmental topic and more like a test of whether Ireland’s future can survive contact with the material world.

That phrase, “the material world”, is doing work here. The circular economy brings into view the physical conditions of national ambition: products, waste, repair, reuse, energy, extraction, transport, housing, industry, land, supply chains, households, cost, and labour. It asks what happens to all the stuff.

That sounds modest. It is not. Ireland and Europe talk constantly about transformation: green transition, digital transition, industrial strategy, resilience, competitiveness, social fairness, climate action. But circularity sits beneath much of that language and asks a stubborn question. Can these ambitions be made real in the systems by which we design, produce, consume, maintain, discard, recover, and remake?

This may be why the circular economy has begun to feel like a signal rather than a subject. It is not just one policy area among others. It may be a way of seeing whether the larger policy language is serious.

For Marshall on Policy, this discovery may open into a longer sequence provisionally titled “Transforming Ireland”.

The working question would be: what would it mean for Ireland to become capable of its own stated future?

I am not yet answering that here. This is only a note of discovery. But the circular economy may be the first clue. Transformation is not merely aspiration. It is redesign. It is not only what a country says about the future. It is what it does with the material conditions of living. For now, that is the signal.

Working source trail I am keeping a separate source note on circular economy material, including EU, Irish, political-family, research, investment, and civil society sources. The early pattern is clear enough to record: circularity is being treated not only as waste policy, but as part of competitiveness, resilience, climate action, resource security, and social wellbeing.

© David Marshall • attribution • marshall.ie • dm.ie

France has discovered something unexpected. National biomonitoring data suggest that large parts of the French population are exposed to higher levels of cadmium than previously recognised. The source is not an industrial accident or environmental disaster. It appears to be the gradual accumulation of cadmium through everyday foods consumed over many years.

The obvious question for Ireland is whether the same pattern exists here. The answer is surprisingly simple.

We do not know.

Ireland shares some of the conditions that have prompted concern elsewhere. We import phosphate fertilisers whose cadmium content can vary. Much of Ireland's soil is naturally acidic, increasing cadmium uptake by plants. Potatoes, a staple of the Irish diet, are among the crops capable of accumulating cadmium from the soil.

None of this demonstrates that Ireland has a cadmium problem. It does suggest that Ireland has a question worth asking.

Cadmium presents a particular challenge because it accumulates slowly. If exposure becomes a public-health concern, it is likely to emerge over decades rather than years. By the time effects become obvious, significant accumulation may already have occurred. France's findings should not prompt alarm. They should prompt curiosity.

A prudent society does not wait for certainty before it begins looking. It asks whether an issue deserves attention and gathers the evidence needed to answer the question properly.

Cadmium may prove to be a minor concern in Ireland. Equally, it may prove to be something we should have started measuring sooner. At present, we simply do not know.

Further reading: My full analysis, Cadmium and the Questions Ireland Isn't Asking, is available on Marshall on Policy. https://go.marshall.ie/Cadmium-and-the-Questions-Ireland-Isnt-Asking

An absence of evidence risks being mistaken for evidence of absence.

Addendum (7 August 2026)

Since this Signal was published, Europe has learned more about cadmium. The picture has become clearer, and not in a reassuring way.

France’s latest biomonitoring results indicate that elevated exposure remains widespread, with younger age groups again showing higher body burdens. These findings come from ANSES’s 2026 update to its Esteban biomonitoring programme and from the third French Total Diet Study, both published earlier this year.

At European level, the Parliament’s Research Service has now described cadmium as a structural issue across the Union, driven largely by phosphate fertilisers and long-term soil accumulation. Its July 2026 briefing highlights that upcoming revisions to the Fertilising Products Regulation are expected to revisit cadmium limits.

Ireland has made one procedural advance. The EPA’s HBM4IRE project has established the governance needed for a national biomonitoring programme. But Ireland still has no population-level measurements, no dietary exposure data and no baseline against which future policy changes can be assessed. The feasibility work is complete; the monitoring has yet to begin.

The European evidence has strengthened. Ireland’s capacity has improved. Ireland’s knowledge has not.

Addendum (10 August 2026)

Published Cadmium Brief 1. Emailed a copy of the brief to the Crop Production and Safety Division at Agriculture (DAFM). Attached a copy of Cadmium Brief 1 and asked the following 4 questions: 1. What monitoring systems currently exist for cadmium accumulation in Irish soils? 2. What data is available regarding cadmium inputs from fertilisers and other sources? 3. Has any long-term assessment been undertaken regarding future accumulation trends? 4. How is cadmium being considered within Ireland’s circular economy and resource management policies?

HBM4EU Policy Brief (2022) NB: Ireland is a member of the 30 country HBM4EU, which stands for Human Biomonitoring for Europe – the large Horizon 2020 partnership that coordinated how EU countries measure chemicals in people (blood, urine, hair, etc.) to understand real‑world exposure across Europe.

Their briefing on cadmium can be found here: https://www.hbm4eu.eu/policy_briefs/cadmium/

Source type: EU policy/science synthesis Authority: High (HBM4EU, Horizon 2020 programme, linked to EFSA and EU policy development) Value: Strong evidence that cadmium remains a contemporary public health concern despite existing regulation.

HBM4EU Policy Brief (2022): European human biomonitoring data show that cadmium exposure remains widespread across Europe, with dietary intake often near or above recommended limits. Cadmium accumulates over time and is associated with kidney damage, osteoporosis, and cancer risk. Biomonitoring evidence suggests current control measures have not eliminated health concerns.

END

© David Marshall • attribution • marshall.ie • dm.ie

Most major crises arrive with warning signs.

A scientific paper. An unusual statistic. A local report. A regulatory loophole. A pattern that appears insignificant on its own but becomes difficult to ignore when viewed alongside other evidence.

The challenge is rarely the complete absence of information. More often, the information exists but remains fragmented across institutions, disciplines and jurisdictions. By the time the pieces are assembled into a coherent picture, significant harm may already have occurred.

Radar Signals is an attempt to look earlier. This colum will focus on emerging environmental, public health, social practice and policy risks that may deserve greater attention than they currently receive. The aim is not prediction, and certainly not alarmism. Most signals will lead nowhere. Some risks will prove less serious than first imagined. But occasionally a weak signal becomes a strong one.

History offers many examples of hazards that were visible long before they became recognised public issues. In retrospect, the evidence often appears surprisingly clear. The question is why it was overlooked, discounted or ignored.

The purpose of Radar Signals is to examine those early indicators while there is still time for scrutiny, debate and, where necessary, action. Posts will be brief and focused. Each will explore a single signal, trend or concern. Where deeper investigation is available, readers will be directed to longer analysis elsewhere, including at Marshall on Policy and other linked publications.

Governments, regulators and institutions face an increasingly complex world. New technologies, environmental pressures and public health challenges generate more information than ever before. The difficulty is deciding which signals matter.

Not every dot on the radar represents a threat. But the ones that do are often visible before they appear on the front page.

David Marshall Dublin, Ireland

© David Marshall • attribution • marshall.ie • dm.ie